brian maass
Berkshire Hathaway
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A / BRK.B) rallied to numerous all-time highs in 2024 and even crossed a market cap of over $1 trillion in late August 2024. There are only 6 other US companies with a higher valuation.
Despite this seemingly high valuation, Berkshire is a compounding machine having retained nearly all of its $676 billion in earnings. No company has ever done anything like this! It's almost as if Warren is using Berkshire as an academic exercise on compounding.
Since 2018, operating earnings are accelerating faster and share repurchases have increased. See analysis on share repurchases, updated intrinsic value estimates and 2024 price targets.
BRK.A = 1,500 shares BRK.B
BRK.A currently trades at .1% premium to BRK.B
History of Berkshire Share Repurchases
Why is this 2018 change so significant?
Berkshire Hathaway has only changed its buyback philosophy 3 times in almost 60 years (2011, 2012 and 2018). These changes are not done without lots of intentional considerations. Since this last share repurchase authorization change in 2018, Berkshire Hathaway has consistently been repurchasing shares of the company. In fact, Berkshire has repurchased over 13% of the company shares and is generating cash such that they still have record amounts of cash on hand ($325+ billion as of September 2024). The BRK.A share price before this 2018 change was $288,500.
On September 30, 2024, BRK.A shares closed at $691,180 which is a 140% return since July 2018. This exceeds S&P returns over that same time period (~122% total return with dividends reinvested).
What do we know? Berkshire is still trading at less than its intrinsic valuation (conservatively determined) as defined in the Berkshire's share repurchase authorization. All I know, is Warren has proven very conservative over the last 50-60 years. These repurchases are added significant value to the remaining shareholders. So what is the intrinsic value of Berkshire Hathaway?
In Berkshire's August 2024 SEC filing, share repurchases continued (but at a reduced rate) even as the share price continues to increase over $625,000+ share.
In Berkshire's November 2, 2024 SEC filing, it no share repurchase in Q3 2024 (share price averaged ~$663,000 /share and ended the quarter at ~$690,000/ share
What is the intrinsic value of Berkshire?
2 well-know individuals focused on understanding the components of Berkshire Hathaway
Semper Augustus
Annual intrinsic value analysis (~60 pages) by Christoper Bloomstrand of Semper Augustus Investment Group LLC
2023 - $1.035 trillion (updated May 2024) ~$720,125/ share
2022 - $923 billion
2021 - $889 billion
2020 - $791 billion
2019 - $760 billion
2018 - $791 billion
2017 - $611 billion
Whitney Tilson
Annual intrinsic value estimate by Whitney Tilson of Stansberry Research
May2024 - $656,039
Feb2024 - $651,056
2023 - $639,679
2022 - $565,886
2021 - $572,186
2020 - $450,089
2019 - $426,412
2018 - $356,505
2017 - $345,772
Berkshire Analyst 2024 Target Prices
BRK.A - Analyst Price Targets
$807,000 - Oct2024 - UBS - Brian Meredith
$735,000 - Oct2024 - KBW - Meyer Shields
$721,500 - Apr2024 - UBS - Brian Meredith (+6,500)
$715,000 - Feb2024 - UBS - Brian Meredith (+$60,000)
$708,000 - Feb2024 - CFRA Research - Cathy Seifert
$645,000 - Feb2024 - KBW - Meyer Shields (+$35,000)
$655,000 - Jan2024 - UBS - Brian Meredith (+$30,000)
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