•  brian maass

  • Berkshire Hathaway

    Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A / BRK.B) rallied to numerous all-time highs in 2024 and even crossed a market cap of over $1 trillion in late August 2024. There are only 6 other US companies with a higher valuation.

     

    Despite this seemingly high valuation, Berkshire is a compounding machine having retained nearly all of its $676 billion in earnings. No company has ever done anything like this! It's almost as if Warren is using Berkshire as an academic exercise on compounding.

     

    Since 2018, operating earnings are accelerating faster and share repurchases have increased. See analysis on share repurchases, updated intrinsic value estimates and 2024 price targets.

     

    BRK.A = 1,500 shares BRK.B

    BRK.A currently trades at .1% premium to BRK.B

  • History of Berkshire Share Repurchases

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  • Why is this 2018 change so significant?

    Berkshire Hathaway has only changed its buyback philosophy 3 times in almost 60 years (2011, 2012 and 2018). These changes are not done without lots of intentional considerations. Since this last share repurchase authorization change in 2018, Berkshire Hathaway has consistently been repurchasing shares of the company. In fact, Berkshire has repurchased over 13% of the company shares and is generating cash such that they still have record amounts of cash on hand ($325+ billion as of September 2024). The BRK.A share price before this 2018 change was $288,500.

     

    On September 30, 2024, BRK.A shares closed at $691,180 which is a 140% return since July 2018. This exceeds S&P returns over that same time period (~122% total return with dividends reinvested).

     

    What do we know? Berkshire is still trading at less than its intrinsic valuation (conservatively determined) as defined in the Berkshire's share repurchase authorization. All I know, is Warren has proven very conservative over the last 50-60 years. These repurchases are added significant value to the remaining shareholders. So what is the intrinsic value of Berkshire Hathaway?

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    In Berkshire's August 2024 SEC filing, share repurchases continued (but at a reduced rate) even as the share price continues to increase over $625,000+ share.

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    In Berkshire's November 2, 2024 SEC filing, it no share repurchase in Q3 2024 (share price averaged ~$663,000 /share and ended the quarter at ~$690,000/ share

  • What is the intrinsic value of Berkshire?

    2 well-know individuals focused on understanding the components of Berkshire Hathaway

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    Semper Augustus

    Annual intrinsic value analysis (~60 pages) by Christoper Bloomstrand of Semper Augustus Investment Group LLC

     

    2023 - $1.035 trillion (updated May 2024) ~$720,125/ share

    2022 - $923 billion

    2021 - $889 billion

    2020 - $791 billion

    2019 - $760 billion

    2018 - $791 billion 

    2017 - $611 billion

     

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    Whitney Tilson

    Annual intrinsic value estimate by Whitney Tilson of Stansberry Research

     

    May2024 - $656,039

    Feb2024 - $651,056

    2023 - $639,679

    2022 - $565,886

    2021 - $572,186

    2020 - $450,089

    2019 - $426,412

    2018 - $356,505

    2017 - $345,772

  • Berkshire Analyst 2024 Target Prices

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    BRK.A - Analyst Price Targets

    $807,000 - Oct2024 - UBS - Brian Meredith

    $735,000 - Oct2024 - KBW - Meyer Shields

    $721,500 - Apr2024 - UBS - Brian Meredith (+6,500)

    $715,000 - Feb2024 - UBS - Brian Meredith (+$60,000)

    $708,000 - Feb2024 - CFRA Research - Cathy Seifert

    $645,000 - Feb2024 - KBW - Meyer Shields (+$35,000)

    $655,000 - Jan2024 - UBS - Brian Meredith (+$30,000)

     

     

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    BRK.B - Analyst Price Targets

    $538 - Oct2024 - UBS - Brian Meredith

    $490 - Oct2024 - KBW - Meyer Shields

    $481 - Apr2024 - UBS - Brian Meredith

    $477 - Feb2024 - UBS - Brian Meredith

    $472 - Feb2024 - CFRA Research - Cathy Seifert

    $430 - Feb2024 - KBW - Meyer Shields

    $435 - Jan2024 - UBS - Brian Meredith